As the 2016 presidential election enters its final week, national polls are continuing to shift. One recent poll shows that Hillary Clinton has slipped a point behind Donald Trump for the first time since May.
According to an ABC News/Washington Post survey released on November 1, Clinton’s 46-to-45 lead over Trump reversed during the weekend following an announcement by FBI Director James Comey that resurfaced Clinton’s email scandal.
Furthermore, “Strong Enthusiasm” among likely voters has ebbed for Clinton too. Clinton enjoyed a 52 percent strong enthusiasm rating among voters as of October 22, with Trump behind at 49 percent. As of October 30, Clinton had slipped to 45 percent, and Trump had taken the lead with 53.
Historically, the winner of the election may not always hold the lead in polling one week out.
In 2012, President Obama was one percentage point behind Mitt Romney a week out from the election. In 2004, President Bush was one percentage point behind John Kerry. And in 2000, Al Gore was three percentage points behind Bush, even though Gore would win the popular vote.
But while the ABC News/Washington Post poll may show Clinton slipping in the polls, others have her maintaining a lead.
According to RealClearPolitics, Clinton holds a 2.2 percentage point margin over Trump in the polling average.
“But at this point, the election is a long way from being in the bag for Clinton,” Nate Silver wrote for FiveThirtyEight. “Both FiveThirtyEight’s models and betting markets give Trump about a 1 in 4 chance of winning the election, about the same chance as the Chicago Cubs have of winning the World Series.”
According to Politico, Trump has returned to his love of polls after spending weeks on the campaign denouncing and discrediting them while his numbers were down.
“Wow, now leading in @ABC /@washingtonpost Poll 46 to 45,” Trump tweeted on October 31. “Gone up 12 points in two weeks, mostly before the Crooked Hillary blow-up!”
Sources: ABC News, RealClearPolitics, Politico, FiveThirtyEight / Photo Credit: Hillary Clinton/Instagram